One big misread came in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis. Every major CEO and most large investors (not all but most) viewed the 2007 “credit crunch,” where banks cut back lending as housing prices tanked, as simply a downturn in the economic cycle. A few Fed rate cuts, and presto, things would be back to normal.

As Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill marches forward, analysts examine how his broad-ranging policies could turn the fortunes of US companies.