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Additionally, Miami is a much stronger team in the first half than second half. Specifically, the Heat rank fourth worst in fourth-quarter point differential. And they actually rank 10th in the first half, on par with playoff-bound teams like the Pistons, Timberwolves and Nuggets. And I would argue that recent form matters more.

Outside of Brunson, the Knicks are largely healthy, with Karl-Anthony Towns fully capable of stepping into the role of the leading scorer in the meantime. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby are also capable scorers, and even if the offense is scuffling a bit right now, this team should be able to figure things out — especially at home.