ASML Holdings ($ASML) stands as a cornerstone of the global semiconductor supply chain—arguably one of the most irreplaceable ...

However, ASML kept shipping advanced DUV lithography tools, such as the Twinscan NXT:2000i, which are capable of producing chips on 5nm and 7nm-class process technologies.

As ASML hasn't quantified the financial impact of the expanded China export restrictions, I estimate the sales of TWINSCAN NXT:1970i and 1980i DUV in China would be less than 1% of total revenue.

In the table above, we see how China has had a growing participation of ASML's revenues in the last years, which can be explained by a growing demand for ASML's DUV tools.

Previously, the Dutch government imposed import restrictions on ASML's Twinscan NXT:2000i, 2050i, and 2100i DUV lithography machines if shipped to Chinese entities.

China servicing fears The firm’s latest figures also show that customers in China accounted for almost exactly half of its systems revenues in the first six months of 2024 - as well as more than 20 ...

DUV machines are ASML's second-tier lithography systems that are critical to make the circuitry of chips. Last year ASML sourced 29% of its sales from China.

But ASML is banned from selling its EUV and most of its DUV lithography equipment in China following successive curbs by the U.S. and Dutch governments that began in Trump's first term.

Today, ASML has a market cap of about 251 billion Euros, or about 17.8, 13.7, and 11.0 times the low, mid, and high-end scenarios for 2030 earnings. That's a cheap valuation based on 2030 numbers.

While Trump's chip policy is an unknown, ASML has forecast China sales will fall to 20% of its total in 2025 due to U.S.-led restrictions, down from more than 40% in 2024.

ASML is blocked from selling EUV systems to customers in China, but around 15 percent of its sales came from shipping the older deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines to China.