Importantly, the CRFB Adjusted August 2025 Baseline does not incorporate the dynamic effects from OBBBA nor other changes to the economy. Absent a new baseline from CBO, CRFB will update this baseline later in the year to account for these effects as well as new policies and estimates.

WASHINGTON — U.S. federal budget deficits will be nearly US$1 trillion higher over the next decade than projected in January by the Congressional Budget Office as a result of tax and spending legislation and tariffs, a budget watchdog said on Wednesday.

By fiscal year 2035, the national debt is set to surpass $53 trillion, or 120% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product, according to a new estimate by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The updated number – which CRFB reached by assuming that all current trade deals and tariffs remain in effect – is $1 trillion more than projected in the Congressional Budget Office’s January 2025 Budget and Economic Outlook.

The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates that, as of 7 August 2025, the average effective tariff rate imposed by the US on goods imports stood at 18.6%, the highest since 1933. That was up from 2.4% in 2024, before Donald Trump returned to office. That significant increase means the US government's tariff revenues have shot up.

Republican legislation criticized by media will slash deficits through economic growth, tariff revenue and deportation while cutting taxes on tips and overtime.