U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade deal with Japan has sparked fresh optimism that the global economy will manage to avoid getting hit with extremely elevated tariffs, even as many U.S. trading partners still don’t have agreements.

Gulf is winning Trump's trade and tariff war, First Abu Dhabi Bank's Simon Ballard tells CNBC's Dan Murphy

While recession odds have been dialed back in recent weeks, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal still see 33% odds of one coming within a year, compared with 22% at the start of 2025. Meanwhile, earnings estimates for the S&P 500 compiled by research group FactSet are 3% lower since then, the Journal said.

U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff decisions since he took office on January 20 have shocked financial markets and sent a wave of uncertainty through the global economy. Here is a timeline of the major developments: February 1 - Trump imposes 25% tariffs on Mexican and most Canadian imports and 10% on goods from China,

Donald Trump praised Australia’s decision to lift import curbs on US beef amid trade negotiations between the two allies, after the US president had highlighted Canberra’s biosecurity measures as an unfair impediment to trade.

The trade pact with Brussels will be similar to the one agreed with Japan earlier this week, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The European Union dominates critical pharmaceutical imports into the United States, making the 30% tariffs Trump threatened to go into effect Aug. 1 particularly risky.

Throw it all together and a level of predictability is finally emerging after six months of tariff threats that had at one point jacked up rates to 145% on China and near 50% on some smaller Asian exporters. Investors cheered the moves, with Asian shares rising the most in a month.